St. Andrews, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS62 KCAE 250752
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will lift north of the area as a warm
front later today, followed by the passage of a cold front from
the west on Saturday. Drier and somewhat cooler air will spread
over the area behind the front late in the weekend, with
continued dry conditions and warming temperatures then expected
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Low clouds and/or fog will dissipate by mid to late morning.
- Warmer than normal temperatures will persist.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms should hold off until late
  afternoon/early evening and persist though much of tonight.

A nearly stationary front persists over the area this morning,
but will lift north of the area as a warm front later today as a
short wave trough approaches from the west.

Abundant low level moisture has led to extensive low clouds and
areas of fog early this morning. The fog could be locally dense
at times, but it likely won`t be persistent or widespread enough
to warrant a dense fog advisory. Morning lows will be mild in
the lower 60s across the area.

While a southerly flow will maintain advection of warm/moist
air into the area, there does not appear to be any strong
synoptic forcing mechanisms for convection through most of the
afternoon. The surface boundary which has been present the past
couple of days will be well north of the area by the time of peak
heating today and there are no significant short waves expected
to pass though aloft. As a result, most areas will remain rain-
free though the afternoon. Temperatures will remain above
normal, with highs around 80 or in the lower 80s most places.

A short wave trough will pass across the area tonight, and
guidance is in good agreement showing scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms affecting the area. Given the
nocturnal timing of the convection, instability appears to be
minimal and do not anticipate any strong/severe thunderstorms.
Extensive cloud cover and continued influx of warm/moist air
within a southerly surface flow will result in another mild
night with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- A cold front moves through the FA Saturday, bringing more
  chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly toward
  the Pee Dee and region and into the northern Midlands.

- Drier air moves in behind Saturday`s front for Sunday.

- Temperatures above normal expected Saturday and near normal
Sunday.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Saturday could start with an
isolated lingering shower or weak thunderstorm into the Pee Dee
region and eastern Midlands as an upper trough begins to swing
into the northern FA after 12z or so but the main story will be
the cold front that is expected to pass through during the 20-0z
window. Initially southerly winds should allow temperatures to
rise into the mid 80s during the afternoon with surface dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. With solid low level moisture
content, high-res model guidance and high-res ensembles depict
between 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing and increasing 20-25
kt 0-6km shear vectors that have more of a perpendicular
component to the incoming front. This should allow scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front where
the greatest coverage continues to be expected in the Pee Dee
region and into the northern and eastern Midlands due to
lingering upper support from the trough. The main limiting
factor in greater coverage is winds in the 800-700 mb layer
will be more west-northwesterly as the trough passes, ushering
in drier air in the mid levels that is being shown in most CAM
forecast soundings. With this said, CAMs are in fairly good
agreement that scattered convective development is most likely
in the aforementioned regions. With some of this dry air aloft
noted and an inverted V mixed layer profile, strong
evaporatively driven downdrafts will be possible as shown with
modest to high DCAPE values and thus an isolated strong to
marginally severe storm will be possible, bringing the main
hazards of strong wind gusts and possible small hail, though the
overall severe risk is on the lower end.

This activity wraps up as the front clears the FA by the
evening, shifting winds out of the west and eventually northwest
with gradually clearing skies that should allow decent
radiational cooling and cooler lows that fall into the mid to
upper 50s across the north and in the upper 50s to low 60s
south.


Sunday and Sunday Night: Behind Saturday`s front, high pressure
begins to slide in with northwest flow aloft continuing as
ridging begins to build in the central CONUS. PWAT`s drop near
normal to just below normal and northeasterly low level winds
keep afternoon temperatures in check with highs in the mid to
upper 70s expected in the northern FA and into the upper 70s to
near 80 in the southern FA. A shortwave embedded in this
northwest flow is expected to pass just south of the CWA during
the afternoon and evening but a mainly dry forecast is expected
as most medium and long rage model guidance show the bulk of any
rain showers staying to the south with the low chance of a
stray shower or two scraping the southern CSRA. Sunday night
then sees a good radiational cooling night coupled with
continuing northeast low level flow and thus the coolest night
we have seen in the past week is expected with overnight lows in
the upper 40s to low 50s in the northern Midlands and the Pee
Dee region and in the mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- High pressure and calmer weather moves in for the early and
  midweek.

- Temperatures initially start near normal before rising back
  above normal the rest of the period.

High pressure and strong ridging aloft build in through the
midweek, likely bringing drier conditions with NAFES PWAT`s
near average through much of the period. Monday looks be similar
to Sunday as northeast winds continue much of the day before
shifting more easterly to southeasterly, keeping temperatures
near average. As we move into the midweek southeasterly to
southerly low level flow begins to bring temperatures back above
average Tuesday and Wednesday where a run toward the low 90s
will be possible Wednesday, which is shown well with EFI values
for max temperatures Wednesday reaching between 0.7-0.8 across
the FA.

Ensembles indicate ridging may become more suppressed late
Wednesday through Thursday as a mid level trough digs into the
Great Lakes region with southerly flow Thursday starting to
bring NAFES PWAT back over 1" as a frontal boundary nears the FA
from the northwest. This could bring back increasing rain
chances toward Thursday but confidence is not high in this at
this time. Besides this, the EFI signal for max temperatures
Thursday is again near 0.70 and another run toward the low 90s
may be possible but with muggier conditions due to increasing
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture has led to the development of low
stratus and fog at KCAE, KCUB and KOGB early this morning, with
guidance suggesting the same occurring at KAGS and KDNL closer
to daybreak. The result will be a period of IFR and LIFR
conditions which should persist though mid-late morning, before
conditions improve to VFR levels by about 16-17Z. Scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible after
00Z as a short wave trough moves through from the west. Winds
will be southerly less than 10 kt through the forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions will generally
prevail, although some flight restrictions are possible with
showers and thunderstorms accompanying the passage of a cold
front on Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$