St. Andrews, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

752
FXUS62 KCAE 041439
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1039 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued warm conditions into the weekend, with near record
temperatures expected through Sunday. A cold front will move
slowly through the area late Sunday through Monday with
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures
expected behind the front next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Near Record Warmth Continues with an isolated shower/storm
  possible in the CSRA.

10:30 AM Update: Satellite imagery indicating some scouring out
of the stratus now as the early-morning discussion mentioned.
Stratus is hanging on along and south and east of I-20. Drier
air in the low levels is also being ushered in as can be seen on
the low level water vapor loop, which will help to scour out the
rest of the stratus in the next 2-3 hours. Forecast highs
remain generally on track despite lingering stratus as areas
that have seen some clearing have already warmed into the upper
70s. There remains some question whether a shower or storm
develop this afternoon. Destabilization is expected, but dry air
aloft as mentioned below and a lot of guidance is indicating a
cap, which could limit shower/storm development.

Early-morning discussion: Anomalously strong upper level
ridging continues over the southeastern US with NAEFS mean 500mb
heights greater than the climatological max. Overall the
pattern is similar to yesterday with surface high pressure
offshore and strong upper ridging over the area. This will lead
to highs well above average once again, mainly in the upper 80s
to around 90. Forecasting a daily record high at Augusta today
of 90F (would break the record of 89F set in 1945). Columbia
record is 91F from 1910 which is not out of the realm of
possibility to be reached. Similar to yesterday morning, low
level moisture has supported widespread stratus coverage across
the forecast area but after sunrise, mixing will increase with
the stratus scouring out by late morning, although with forecast
soundings indicating substantial low level moisture, will
likely be a widespread cumulus field today with upper level
clouds leading to mostly cloudy skies. Moderate destabilization
expected today, indicated by the HREF mean, although forecast
soundings do indicate a substantial layer of drier air above
above 5kft. An isolated shower or storm remains possible this
afternoon, associated with an axis of higher moisture, which
hires guidance indicates will be in the CSRA but any convection
that does develop will face significant dry air entrainment. Low
clouds likely develop once again tonight with lows remaining
mild, in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Highly anomalous warmth continues Saturday, with near daily record
temps.

Strong offshore ridging continues to keep conditions dry over the
southeast. Moisture may decrease minimally with PWAT around 1", but
still expecting at least partly to mostly cloudy skies through the
day. Daytime temperatures should be near record highs once again,
upper 80s to near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday as a
 front moves into the area.
-A few strong storms and locally heavy rain are possible.
- Much cooler temps likely starting Monday and lasting throughout
  next week.

The long term is fairly interesting for the first portion of the new
week. The semi-stagnant pattern will finally break down and give our
neighbors to the west/northwest a break. The longwave upper trough
will push east with a shortwave trough lifting northeast through the
TN river valley toward the mid-Atlantic states. In turn, the upper
ridge over the southeast will move offshore, allowing for
moisture return on strengthening southwest flow aloft. PWAT
values will surge north of 1.5" by Sunday evening. Increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms along a slow moving cold
front are then expected Sunday through Monday night.

While the details are still a bit fuzzy due to timing and strength
differences between models, there remains a good chance for some
heavy rainfall as precip moves parallel to the front. This will be
fueled by PWAT levels 200-250% of normal. WPC has placed most of the
Midlands in Marginal flash flood risk, with a portion of the CSRA in
a Slight risk. Additionally, we`ll need to keep an eye on the
severe threat, with SPC placing portions of the forecast area in
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Sunday temperatures
should be quite warm, near record heat again ahead of the front,
with a sharp cool down by Monday with highs 15 to 20 degrees
cooler.

The remainder of next week should feature much cooler temperatures
and a return to dry conditions. NBM temp spreads are large following
the passage of the cold front, so confidence at this stage regarding
exact values is quite low. Strong radiational cooling still seems
possible Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s but its
something to keep an eye on. The next trough brings a chance of rain
late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly MVFR with isolated IFR Ceilings this Morning.

MVFR ceilings in place at all the terminals this morning except
for DNL which has IFR ceilings. Likely going to continue this
way through much of the morning with improvement late morning
with warming after sunrise leading to improved mixing and drier
air at the surface. A small chance for an isolated shower or storm for
the Augusta terminals this afternoon but confidence remains too
low to include in this TAF update. While there remains a
possibility of ceiling restrictions tonight, confidence remains
too low at this time to include in the TAF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning stratus remains
possible through the weekend. Precipitation remains unlikely
through Saturday before the next rain chance moves in Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$